Let the magic commence
13:30 Tuesday 12th of March will mark the start of the 2024 Cheltenham Festival. The Guinness will be flowing, the bookies will be nervous and the short price favourites will high. Day 1 of Cheltenham, the champion day, has a trend of being the day with the shortest winners but that doesn’t mean there isn’t any value out there. I am going to have a look at where I think I can find some early value on day 1.
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
he Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is the first race on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival. It is the premier race during the jumps season for the speedier novice hurdlers as it is run over the minimum trip of 2m. As a result the Grade 1 presents a fierce test of accurate jumping at speed. It has been won by some of the most promising horses in recent history, including Altior, Vautour and Douvan, who all went on to win multiple Grade 1 races.
It’s still anyone’s guess if Ballyburn will run here or not and we might have to wait a bit longer to find that out. With that in mind I have gone with FIREFOX for Gordon Elliot to get Ireland off to a winning start at this years festival. People seem to have forgotten when Firefox came out on top against Ballyburn at Fairyhouse before Christmas and seem to be focusing on his last 2 races instead. Important to note his last 2 have both been a drop back in distance and its clear that 2m might be the perfect distance for Firefox. Jeriko Du Reponet is worth a mention has comes into this race after bagging a hattrick Doncaster in January but all 2 races were lacking class and for me this takes away from his season form. For me its Firefox to win NRNB at 6/1.
Arkle Challenge Trophy
Since the news that Marine Nationale won’t be running here at Cheltenham this race has blown a bit more wide open. Il Etat Temps for Willie Mullins at 4/1 but this horse has history of being beaten by a few of the runners here including Found a Fifty and Facile Vega. Another horse who has beaten the favourite is GAELIC WARRIOR. There are some questions of how he will get on with this sharp left handed track but this wasn’t an issues runner up in the last 2 Cheltenham festivals and I believe it will be third time lucky this time round for Gaelic Warrior. He is running for inform Willie Mullins (9-22 41% in the last 14 days) and has won 2 of 3 chases this season. IF you take away the most recent run where he unseated Paul Townsend then things are going well for Gaelic Warrior this season. Mullins delivered a 1-2-3 in this race last and he won’t be far off from doing the same this year. I am backing him to win NRNB at 5/1.
Another horse that maybe show a little bit more value is QUILIXIOS owned by Cheveley Park Stud – owners that love Cheltenham with runners winning 9 out of 22 races in the last 5 years. If you ignore the 3m form, as that won’t be necessary here, this horse has had some good wins this season and appears to have found its perfect distance. For these reasons I will be backing Quilixios NRNB each way at 7/1.
Ultima Handicap Chase
A race that has produced some high odds winner in the past with the likes of Vintage Clouds in 2021 at 28/1 and then more recently Corach Rambler in 2022 at 10/1. My pick here is STUMPTOWN for Gavin Cromwell who was unlucky last year when runner up in the amateurs handicap chase when missing out by a neck. When at Newbury for the Coral Gold Cup in December Stumptown was also very unlucky when being badly hampered by faller. If the ground is wet and is churned up by the first 2 races then Stumptown won’t mind and it may even go in his favour. Stumptown NRNB each each at 12/1.
Lossiemouth
Personally, I hope Lossiemouth is ran in this years Champion Hurdle and if so I will be back her to beat stable mate favourite Stateman. Lossiemouth’s 6 wins from 7 this year and barely putting a foot run makes me happy to back her in either races but if running in the Mares Hurdle then the odds would be significantly smaller.
Mares Hurdle
If Lossiemouth runs in the Champion Hurdle that would tee it up the Mare Hurdle to be a bit more wide open. A horse that has been runner up to some great horses, one being Lossiemouth and the other being Honeysuckle, is LOVE ENVOI. Another horse who could run in the Champion Hurdle still but for me she has to go on the Mare Hurdle for any chance of a top 3 finish. A horse that enjoys racing here at Cheltenham and will go into this race with one of the best RPRs. Love Envoi is value at NRNB each way at 12/1.
Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
As we get to the end of day 1 we start to see more wide open fields. Lark in the Morning maybe deserves to be favourite at 6/1 but for me this is too short for a horse of this calibre. WODHOOH running for Gordon Elliott, who won this race last year, is unbeaten this season over hurdles. An impressive 5 out of 5 but one to watch here is the weather – heavy rain will not be welcomed by Wodhooh. This may be his biggest challenge yet but at 10/1 NRNB I will be backing each way.
LIARI has been switched from flat racing to hurdles and hasn’t looked back since winning 3 out of 3 this season and goes into this on a career high mark and at the top of this field. Nicholls is on some great form of late and if Cobden is booked this ride then at 12/1 Liari has every chance to get a top 3 finish or even win the lot. Liari to win NRNB at 12/1.
National Hunt Amateur Jockeys Novices’ Chase
The last race of the day sees Corbetts Cross, most likely, going of short favourite with Embassy Gardens close behind. Both seem likely to deliver here but both going off short will likely put me off. APPLE AWAY for me presents some good value at 28/1. There is every chance Lucinda may choose the Ultima Handicap or even Fulke Walwyn Jim Muir Handicap chase instead but if she goes with this race then I’ll be backing each way. Apple Away has shown he has the stamina for this race and has been tested over 3 miles in both chases and over hurdles and has had no problems dealing with heavy ground – which it most likely will be by 5:30 on day one after a day of racing. Lucinda Russell is enjoying a rich vein of form with a 24% strike in the lead up to Cheltenham.
Overall
Day 1 of Cheltenham can make it easy to over do it. Day 1 of Cheltenham typically has the shortest winners. Don’t break the bank for day 1 and don’t break your staking plan just because of the excitement of the day. Check out my other article around Cheltenham form and make sure you follow me on X to keep up to date. The Sporacle (@Sporacle_) / X (twitter.com)